Euro Crisis and Impact on Global Financial Markets

May 27, 2010

By Padmini Arhant

It originated in Iceland with the pervasive subprime mortgage factor and similarly affected other economies like Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain, referenced as PIGS.

Although, every nation in this category share the contaminated ‘derivative’ traded internationally, the lack of deficit control with the national budget exceeding the GDP growth also contributed to the meltdown and subsequently reflected in the poor credit rating.

More prominently, Greece identified with:

“Goldman Sachs between the years 1998-2009 has been reported to systematically helped the Greek government to mask its national true debt facts.

In September 2009 though, Goldman Sachs among others, created a special Credit Default Swap (CDS) index for the cover of high-risk national debt of Greece. This led the interest-rates of Greek national bonds to a very high level, leading the Greek economy very close to bankruptcy in March 2010.”

The culmination of internal and external mismanagement primarily led the Mediterranean economy to the brink of collapse seeking bailout from the European Central Bank (ECB), EU and IMF.

European Union was challenged with a predicament in the Greece bailout to either ignore the problem or address it to avert the contagion in Europe.

Since Greece is an EU member using the reserve currency euro in the 16 of the 27 states representing the eurozone, the former alternative would have had serious ramifications.

Besides, the euro being the second most traded currency in the world after the U.S. dollar; it has multifaceted impact on the financial markets dealing with high volume trading especially in the futures exchange.

The industrialized and emerging economies are in a bind with the euro value reduction, due to the competitiveness expansion in export trade. For example, the export oriented Germany is at a competitive edge with the United States, Japan and China irrespective of Germany specializing in high end industrial and heavy machinery equipments.

Hence, the euro crisis upside is the European nations gaining export affordability.

Accordingly, the emerging economy and the major U.S. creditor China is concerned about the potential split in global market share and availing the opportunity to reject the U.S. request for currency (renminbi) value adjustment, which has been set below the market determination despite China’s extraordinary trade surplus.

China’s currency, renminbi (RMB) or yuan (CNY) has been withheld from floating as the international currency in the foreign exchange market to protect the status quo.

At the same time, the positive aspect of the dollar appreciation is omitted in the evaluation and that being the foreign investments in U.S. dollars particularly the Treasury bills held by China is strengthened in value and guarantee long term security in futures contract.

Financial stability measures adopted by EU, IMF and ECB with approximately one trillion dollars of which a conditional rescue loan worth $110 billion to Greece is approved to reverse the negatives in the financial markets reacting to the euro downslide from the unsustainable government debts and deficit level.

Had the eurozone requirement on its union members to keep deficits below 3 percent of GDP maintained, Greece and other struggling economies need not have been subject to harsh austerity strategies that has resulted in protest among the mainstream population in Greece and Ireland.

Regardless, the current global financial crisis calls for wasteful expenditure elimination and the national budget review to direct investments in high value returns.

Appropriate actions involving tax hikes and spending cuts are necessary to balance the budget.

However, spending cuts targeting the fundamental programs inevitably generating revenues through productive workforce and consumers is counteractive.

Restoring essential programs and services for the job creation and preservation, youth education, citizens’ health care, social security, safe and clean environment nurture healthy and middle class society to ease the burden on the top 1% or 10% wealthy taxpayers in different economies.

Most importantly, the defense budget consuming a significant proportion of taxpayer revenue in the prolonged wars could be divested to peaceful and profitable opportunities benefiting the citizens at the domestic and international front.

The ideal solution for the European Commission and the monetary union to avoid rising deficits in Europe without compromising the member states’ sovereignty in their national fiscal policy decisions would be to establish an independent, non-partisan committee by the states to examine the individual spending and tax plan, rather than the centralized monitoring or the neighboring authority verifying it.

Further, the constitutional amendment by Germany to contain the deficit to 0.35 percent of GDP by 2016 provided the higher deficit not attributed to GDP decline is a trendsetter in curbing the economic crisis.

In concurrence with the economic experts’ advice – The ECB expediting the credit approval on government bonds used as collateral upon qualifying the self-regulated constitutional limit on deficits is prudent in deterring broad speculative lending activities.

Alongside, the EU sweeping financial reform with tough standards against the hedge fund managers including the two proposals by German Parliament:

Global financial transaction tax and Financial activity tax focused on CEO’s Personal Income & Bonuses are effective steps with the exception of the global financial transaction tax because it is eventually transferred to the end-consumer and may not be a viable option for all participants.

Nevertheless, international agreement on financial regulation by G-20 and other nations is crucial in order to emerge from the existing crisis and prevent the future economic recession.

The systemic risk in the multi trillion dollars ‘derivatives,’ that caused the financial debacle in Europe, Middle East (Dubai), North America, Asia and elsewhere demands stringent policies and independent investigations on fraudulent ventures.

The financial overhaul passed by the U.S. Senate last week has been under scrutiny by analysts with mixed response and elaborated in the article titled:

“New Financial rules might not prevent next crisis – Associated Press, Sun May 23rd. 2010 at 3.55 PM EDT. Reported by Jacobs from New York and contributed by AP writer Jim Drinkard.”

Unequivocally, closing the loopholes as detailed in the cited article and other reports is paramount to establish a financial system free of K street influence.

The apparent revolving-door relationship between Wall Street and Capitol Hill in which employees and consultants have moved in and out of high level US Government positions, with the prevalent conflict of interest is a hindrance to any legislation.

Only the electorates with the voting power in a democracy can remove the persisting obstacles by rejecting the special interest representatives in politics against meaningful legislation.

People as the consumers, taxpayers and voters are the ultimate force in achieving the progress for common good.

Thank you.

Padmini Arhant

Written by Padmini Arhant · Filed Under Business 

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